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Births

Births, Deaths and Marriages…

“Some calamities – the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor, 9/11 – have come like summer lightning, as bolts from the blue. The looming crisis of….. the demographics of an aging population, its causes, timing and scope are known”. George Will – Political Commentator for the Washington Post, NBC et al. Over the next decade or so, the Developed World faces the prospect of their populations shrinking at an increasingly fast rate, whilst at the same time the Developing World is seeing continued strong rises in fertility. This fascinating website shows it all in real time, (well not exactly in real time but you get the drift).

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Is Inflation Back?

Is Inflation Back?

Following on from the famous quote that Helen of Troy’s was the face that “launched a thousand ships”, Isaac Asimov, the science fiction writer claimed to have invented a new measurement unit, the millihelen, which corresponds to the beauty required to launch one ship. The Times newspaper this week pointed out that, as per a letter to the New Scientist as far back as 1959, the inverse also applies; -1 millihelen would be enough to sink one. There has been much market angst recently over the rise of inflation, as bond prices have fallen, raising yields which in turn has put equities on edge. But would a rise in interest rates actually be the -1 millihelen necessary to sink the economy?

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The Housing Bubble goes Global

The Housing Bubble goes Global

If one turns on the TV almost any time of day, one will see a litany of property related programmes, “Homes Under the Hammer”, “Location, location, location “and countless others adorn our screens in an almost non-stop barrage of lifestyle envy. As of February 2016, Channel 4 had no less than 12 property shows on its screens and this is almost certainly below where we are now. The property market has gone mainstream and has gone Global.

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We are Experiencing Some Turbulence...

We are Experiencing Some Turbulence…

On the day of Jerome Powell’s inauguration as Fed Chairman (and before he had time to find out where the cafeteria is!), markets have greeted him with a big bang. There are precedents for this “bad luck”. Alan Greenspan started his role as the Chairman in August 1987, 3 months before the Big One in October 1987 and Ben Bernanke also assumed the job in 2006, as the Financial Crisis was just unfolding. So, it is not a unique situation, but it must make him wonder whether the market gods are out to get him. I imagine, ever so quietly, Janet Yellen is having a chuckle…

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Curiouser and Curiouser

Curiouser and Curiouser

“Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” – Alice in Wonderland.

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There's Risk in Credit Risk

There’s Risk in Credit Risk

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing” – Warren Buffett A week ago, a bond mysteriously disappeared from the list of ECB assets being held under the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). The Steinhoff 1.875% bond due for 2025 had gone – the bond had neither been redeemed nor defaulted, so it would seem that it had been liquidated (i.e. sold).

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