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Britain’s weaker growth outlook and persistent inflation put bond risk firmly in focus after the Budget. The OBR now forecasts UK growth of 1.0% in 2027, down from 1.6% in March, while its inflation forecast has risen to 3.4% from 2.0%. Attention now turns to the Bank of England’s 5 November interest-rate decision, with Bank Rate at 3.75%.

Our latest market commentary covers the drivers of market conditions across Q3, along with factor and asset class.

Global equities returned 0.7% in September, helped by a weaker pound, while global bonds returned -0.4%, a third consecutive monthly decline. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan all raising interest rates, meanwhile the Bank of England held rates steady at 3.75%. Government bond yields rose sharply, with long-term US borrowing costs reaching their highest level since 2004.

Bond yields have surged, with the UK government forced to pay the highest borrowing cost on 30-year debt since 1998. The resulting price falls have hit some risk-averse investors particularly hard, including those in lower-risk portfolios with high allocations to longer-dated fixed income.

August saw a recovery in equity markets, as investors returned to the technology sector that had driven July’s sell-off and early hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased the pressure on oil prices. Global equities returned 2.0% for the month, more than recovering July’s 1.6% fall, while global bonds returned -0.3%, a second consecutive monthly decline, constrained by persistent inflation and expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer.

Redemption pressure, weaker borrower finances and greater regulatory scrutiny have put private credit in the spotlight in 2026. ebi does not invest directly in private-credit funds, but public markets are not sealed off from the risks they bring. Here is how those risks could travel – and why the appropriate response is portfolio discipline, not prediction.

Global equity markets gave up ground in July, returning -1.6% after gains of 5.8% in May and 0.8% in June. Global bonds fell 1.9%, having returned 1.2% and 0.8% over the same two months, making July the first month since March in which both major asset classes declined together. Two forces pulled in the same direction: an abrupt unwinding of the artificial intelligence trade, which weighed heavily on technology and semiconductor stocks, and the collapse of the US–Iran ceasefire, which pushed Brent crude above $95 a barrel and drove UK borrowing costs above 5% for the first time since May.

Our latest market commentary covers the drivers of market conditions across Q2, along with factor and asset class.