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March was defined by a single, seismic event: the outbreak of direct military conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran. Following US and Israeli air strikes on Iran on 28th February, markets were engulfed in the most severe geopolitical and energy shock in years. Oil prices surged by as much as 50% in the space of weeks, global bonds sold off sharply as investors reappraised the inflation outlook, and equities fell across the board. Global equities returned -5.58% for the month, while global bonds returned -1.18%. The conflict rapidly spread beyond Iran’s borders, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, triggering a sweeping reassessment of the global economic and interest rate outlook.

The current escalation in the Middle East intensified sharply on Saturday 28th February 2026 when Israel and the United States carried out what it called pre-emptive strikes targeting Iranian strategic and military infrastructure. The attacks marked a significant expansion of hostilities between the two regional powers and heightened fears of a broader regional conflict.

Global equity and bond markets rebounded strongly in February following mixed performance earlier in the year. Equities delivered solid gains as easing inflation in the US and Europe supported investor appetite for risk assets. Fixed income markets also recovered, reversing January’s losses as expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year increased.

Global equity markets began the year with cautious optimism, rebounding from negative returns in November and December. Investor sentiment remained measured, as elevated technology valuations and ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on equities. Fixed income markets faced pressure amid shifting expectations for monetary policy and economic growth. Japanese government bond yields rose to multi-year highs ahead of a stimulus package from the newly elected Prime Minister, pressuring bond prices. In the US, the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.50-3.75% in January, signalling a pause in tightening while monitoring economic conditions.

Our latest market commentary covers the drivers of market conditions across Q4, along with factor and asset class.

• Central banks take a cautious step towards easing as growth momentum cools

• AI enthusiasm continues to drive markets, but valuation concerns refuse to fade

• Rare earth tensions between the US and China ease temporarily, but strategic risks remain

2025 was a year of real progress for ebi. As well as growing assets under management (AUM) by more than £1.3 billion, we continued to develop our investment proposition and invest in our technology stack and people — all with a clear focus on supporting our advisers by delivering better outcomes for their clients.

• The Federal Reserve delivers another rate cut, but further easing remains uncertain

• AI-driven tech rally creates investor caution amid rising “bubble” concerns

• Japanese stocks hit record highs after new Prime Minister signals pro-growth agenda