Blog

Beached

Market Commentary | October 4, 2019

Equities can be seen as a “call option”on the future growth of a company; once the liabilities due to bondholders are paid, the surplus accrues to shareholders in the form of dividends/share buybacks, etc. or are re-invested to generate future growth in the firm. At least, this is what happens most of the time, but every now and then, things go awry, a company fails and the “call option” expires worthless. It is not a common occurrence, but when it does happen, the shareholders tend to lose everything.

All the Same Things

“If all you’re trying to do is essentially the same thing as your rivals, then it’s unlikely that you’ll be very successful” – Michael Porter. In the last fortnight, there has been something of a reversal in the market’s favorite Factor trade – long Growth/Momentum and short Value. It began in the US, but as is normally the case, it soon went Global. As a result of this, months of gains in Momentum (long) and Value (short) were lost in a matter of days. But one would not have known anything of this, looking at the Indices, with all major markets seeing gains since the start of September.

Where has the Value premium gone?

Evidence Based Investing, Factor Based Investing | September 6, 2019

The following blog was produced by Garrett Quigley of GSI (Global Systematic Investors LLP). GSI are the appointed sub-distributor for the Global Sustainable Value fund which EBI will be using in it’s Earth portfolio suite. You may wish to view former EBI blogs on the Value premium both here and here. Summary • In global developed equity markets, Growth has outperformed Value for a protracted period.• Growth is now trading at a historically high price level relative to Value.• Much of the recent outperformance of Growth vs Value is due to the change in the valuation spread between Growth and Value.• When Growth last traded at this valuation level, it subsequently underperformed Value for 20 years.

China’s Banking System on the Edge?

Market Commentary | August 30, 2019

“If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you” – Friedrich Nietzsche. Amidst the sound and fury of trade war rhetoric, there are signs of problems in the banking system in China. In the last 3 months, there has been a spate of previously unknown events there – bank defaults. This week’s news of a delay in the implementation of (some of) the US tariffs on Chinese goods led to an immediate spike higher in shares (and lower in bonds) but has not changed the situation that has plagued the Chinese banks.

Yield Curve Hysteria

Market Commentary | August 16, 2019

“Whatever hysteria exists is inflamed by mystery, suspicion and secrecy. Hard and exact facts will cool it”- Elia Kazan (Broadway and Hollywood Director). We last wrote about the US Yield Curve at the end of March this year, but since then, speculation about it appears to have run rampant. Markets now seem certain of a recession, with timing the only bone of contention. As a consequence, the world is now awash in bonds that have negative yields, ($16.7 trillion, as per Bloomberg chart below), meaning that investors are paying issuers to own their bonds. On the face of it, this makes absolutely no economic sense whatsoever. As of early August, European government bond yields were deep in negative territory, with UK Gilts not too far behind. This week, (16/08) 10-year Gilts were yielding the princely sum of 0.45% per year.

Gold – A Barbarous Relic?

Market Commentary | August 2, 2019

The phrase above dates back from John Maynard Keynes’ book, “A Tract on Monetary Reform” written in 1923. Since then, debate has turned on whether Gold is a store of value or just another commodity. Until recently, however, the debate looked settled; the price has spent nearly a decade going down from a high above $2,000 to around $1,100 in December 2015. Still, the “Gold bugs” kept the faith, continuing to warn of impending disaster (notwithstanding the failure of those disasters to actually happen). In the last few weeks, it appears that they may be getting their day in the sun. Last year, it was among the better performers, losing only around 2% in US Dollar terms and it’s up nearly 10% so far in 2019 – many investors are now starting to re-assess their views. Analysts are getting bullish, as indeed are Ce…

(Currency) Swings and Roundabouts

Market Commentary | July 26, 2019

“What You Gain On The Swings, You Lose On The Roundabouts.” – Robert Jordan (US Author), from his book “The Path of Daggers”.

Curiouser and Curiouser… and Curiouser

Market Commentary | July 19, 2019

Angels on the sideline,Baffled and confused.Father blessed them all with reason,And this is what they choose? – Right in Two (Tool). At the end of January 2018, we highlighted how a number of seemingly contradictory things were happening in US asset markets; shortly thereafter the Dow Jones Index fell around 13% peak to trough in the space of just 5 trading days. We appear to back in twilight zone mode once again – in the last week, both the Dow and the S&P 500 have achieved major Index milestones (27000 and 3000 respectively) and are already heading towards the next “psychological” levels at what appears to be escape velocity.

Currency Wars Breaking Out?

Market Commentary | July 12, 2019

“Currency Manipulation is what Bertrand Russell called an “emotive conjugation” and Bernard Woolley called an “irregular verb”:* I am cutting interest rates* You are trying to achieve a competitive devaluation* He/she/it is manipulating their currency to obtain an unfair advantage”. – John Kemp (Analyst)

The Land of Opportunity?

Evidence Based Investing | July 5, 2019

“The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life” – Theodore Roosevelt. As we discussed last week, professional investors (a very loose term), are remaining bearish on US equities, but they are by no means alone. In this market cycle, far from becoming euphoric, investors are becoming ever more concerned/worried/anxious as prices rise higher. It IS an unusual state of affairs and heightened by the financial media’s constant doom-laden headlines; sometimes it appears that investors won’t fully relax until there’s a crash!