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Reminiscences of a Stockbroker

Reminiscences of a Stockbroker

[The title of this blog is penned with apologies to Edwin Lefevre, the writer of what is possibly the greatest book on the stock market ever written] In February next year, I shall have worked in stock markets in various guises for 29 years, and will have to up-date the bio below. In the meantime, in what will be our last blog of 2015, I shall attempt to describe the similarities that have endured and the differences that have emerged in that period. It is by no means exhaustive, merely a personal account of what it was, and is, like to work in the City of London.

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Breaking up is (not so) hard to do

Breaking up is (not so) hard to do

Events in Europe appear to be moving in a decidedly dangerous direction. The initial huge sympathy for the migrants has given way to concern (and in some cases alarm) amongst the local populations. From welcoming refugees unconditionally a few weeks ago, Angela Merkel has changed tack, limiting their “rights” and preventing further inflows (as far as possible). This puts them on a par with the likes of Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and others who are actively seeking to offload the problem to others. Meanwhile the EU itself, according to the Washington Post, predicts<

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From ZIRP to NIRP - The Monetary Twilight Zone

From ZIRP to NIRP – The Monetary Twilight Zone

ZIRP- Another Japanese innovation, this time from the Bank of Japan, whose aim was to stimulate the Japanese economy by having a Zero Interest Rate Policy: so far (15 years and counting), it has had an extremely limited effect. NIRP- A variation on the above theme, whereby Central Banks (particularly the ECB, but not limited to them ) employ a strategy of Negative Interest Rate policy: the likely economic result will be much the same.

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A Sequence of Errors?

A Sequence of Errors?

The future depends on what you do today. – Mahatma Gandhi There has been much talk recently about “Sequence Risk” (a more detailed description of the opposing views can be found here and here ), as both sides ponder the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) for retiring investors, and the effect of market returns on Retirement Pot longevity. …

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Till Debt Us Do Part?

Till Debt Us Do Part?

Some debts are fun when you are acquiring them, but none are fun when you set about retiring them. – Ogden Nash This week we shall focus on a number of (partially) related stories in lieu of a major theme. The common denominator is debt – how companies, states and even countries deal with the issue will shape the economic landscape for years to come.…

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The End Game for the Fed...?

The End Game for the Fed…?

In the wake of the Fed’s non-decision on Interest rates last week, the markets have remained highly volatile and there are now questions being raised about the Fed itself. As Vanguard’s Chief US economist put it, “we are concerned with the Fed’s acknowledgement of recent market volatility in its decision. The Fed runs the risk of being held captive to the markets as, paradoxically, much of that volatility is due to the anticipation and uncertainty around when the Fed will move”.

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Can Corbyn win

Can Corbyn win, and what if he does?

[The following is NOT a forecast – according to some bookies, Corbyn has only a 14% chance of being the next Prime Minister. What follows is an unlikely potential scenario which would have a high impact on markets – a so-called Black Swan event] There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know. – Donald Rumsfeld Black Swan: An outlier event, with an extreme impact…

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