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“Truly, the real black swan problem of stock market busts is not about a remote event that is considered unforeseeable; rather it is about a foreseeable event that is considered remote. The vast majority of market participants fail to expect what should be, in reality, perfectly expected events.” Mark Spitnagel, The Dao of Capital.This applies equally well to ALL assets, not just stocks. Some of the most malign consequences of QE, ZIRP, NIRPand so on have fallen on savers. It is now practically impossible to live off the interest from savings (unless you are Donald Trump, in which case you’re a bit busy at the moment), which forces Investors to “Reach For Yield”, with potentially dangerous implications. However, they are not the only victims- Pension Funds are under assault on two fronts, one more technical, one very practical.

A new phenomenon of the 2000s and beyond has been the rise of Financial Television. As the markets have soared, so has interest in them, to the point where even Channel 4 news (not an outlet known for its pro-capitalist views), now feel compelled to announce how stock markets have done that day. Meanwhile, at Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Fox Business News etc, they maintain a hectic pace, often spending as long as 3 minutes covering in depth the latest news stories of the day (hour?), and discussing economic issues with all the gravitas they can muster. One of the first casualties in all this is thought, which they replace with cliches of varying vacuity. Below are some of the best (or worst, depending on your view). 1): “China will have a Hard/Soft landing”. It is by no means clear how a country can get airborne in the first place.

“If you want to know what God thinks about money, just look at the people He gives it to.” – Dorothy Parker [This post was prompted by a discussion with an Oil- industry employed client, who was speculating on the motivations behind the Saudi policy on production etc. and what it meant for the future price of oil. We thought it worth weighing in on the subject, as the oil market is still one of the most important cost inputs into economic decision-making, and thus growth] The oil market continues to confound expectations. Since the low point in mid-February, it has risen nearly 40%, leading some to call the oil bear market over. This may prove to be premature however.

[Update: in a further sign of the Elite trying to “steer” opinion, the British Chambers of Commerce have announced the suspension of it’s former Director General, John Longworth after he voiced pro Leave views. The Government have denied putting pressure on the BCC to remove him. When an official denies something, it is normally a sign that it is true]. Your imagination is your preview of life’s coming attractions.

Monkey killing monkey, killing monkeyOver pieces of the ground.Silly Monkeys, give them thumbsThey make a club and beat their brother down.”Right in Two”- Tool Things appear to be hotting up in the Middle East once again. The European refugee crisis has focussed attention on the on-going civil war raging in Syria, and the potential for escalation in fighting if the Turks and the Saudi’s get drawn into the battle for control of the country.

Last week’s imposition (taking effect this week) of the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy, could represent the last throw of the dice for central banks. The premise is that savers are to be so heavily punished for so doing that they feel compelled to spend money to avoid paying interest on their savings. Central banks appear to have run out of ideas, and are resorting to one that cannot work. If one is living off savings, and rates are negative, one will be more likely to save yet more, to avoid future impoverishment. Of course, this policy has been in operation for a while in Europe and one has to wonder for whom this policy is being enacted. One economics professor thinks he knows; the chart below may also provide a clue:[Disclaimer: I have always wanted an excuse to show this chart]