QE for the People?
“When you get something for nothing, you just haven’t been billed for it yet” -Franklin Jones Journalist 1908-80.
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It’s looking Grim up North
“The Americans will always do the right thing… after they’ve exhausted all the alternatives” . (attributed to Churchill, though there is doubt as to its veracity). The row between the US and North Korea has been escalating, with increasingly angry words and threats (whose intensity is mirrored 5000 km away on the Indo-Chinese border) being exchanged. After studiously ignoring the rise in the diplomatic temperature for nearly a month, last week it suddenly exploded into life with markets, especially Asian markets, understandably taking fright. Buying resumed this week as nuclear Armageddon didn’t occur over the weekend, (though one must wonder who these “investors” think they will be able to sell to in the event of a holocaust), but the situation remains tense as both sides contemplate their next moves.
Who’s the Dummy?
“If you’ve been playing poker for half an hour and you still don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” – Warren Buffett
University Challenge
“There are times when wisdom cannot be found in the chambers of parliament or the halls of academia but at the unpretentious setting of the kitchen table.” ― E.A. Bucchianeri
Factoring it all in
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem.No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary. (Occam’s Razor). One of the defining trends of recent years has been the rise of ETF’s /Index funds which have taken hold over the course of the period post the Financial Crisis. There have been a proliferation of “Factors”, or possibilities of Alpha generation, many of which turn out to be either useless (i.e. they never worked) or redundant (they don’t now). This study suggests that there have been 59 new Factors “discovered ” between 2010 and 2012 alone!
‘Til Debt us do part…
After only the briefest of pauses post 2007-09, debt in all its forms is on the rise again and on a global scale; it now represents a staggering 327% of World GDP (or output). From Chinese state enterprises, to US Auto loans and here in the shape of consumer borrowing, debt is back and in a larger way than ever. As the chart below demonstrates, undeterred by Brexit, Trump’s victory or worries over North Korea etc, outstanding Credit Card debt is at all time highs (again).
The Consultant will see you now.
“A consultant is someone who saves his client almost enough to pay his fee”. -Arnold Glasow (US Businessman, Humourist). 1905-98.
The Demographic Deficit
“Aging seems to be the only available way to live a long life”- Kitty O’Neill Collins. (US Author).
What next for the UK?
“Those who are easily shocked should be shocked more often.” ― Mae West I wrote a blog piece 18 months ago, looking at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn winning the next General Election. It seemed daft at the time, but if recent history has shown us anything, it is that shocks are the new normality. Corbyn has claimed “victory”, (which given the shortfall in Labour seats relative to the Conservatives does raise concerns about the future course of the economy under his leadership), but in truth, it was the Conservatives who “lost it” (in both senses).…