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“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” ― Alexander Pope [We have recently been asked to explain in more detail how we arrived at our Expected Rate of Return numbers used as our return assumptions. What follows is an attempt to rationalise the output numbers, in a way that can hopefully be understood as the basis for our investment philosophy]. Below is a copy of the latest ERR breakdown, (from our Turnkey Workbook), showing the sources of the Equity and Bond Risk Premium (ERP) we expect to achieve over time. We shall attempt to dis-aggregate them and look at the internal logic of the results. The Bond premium has 3 constituent parts:1) The Risk-Free Rate (RFR) – the interest payable on a risk-free investment.2) A Maturity Premium – as the maturity of a bond rises, so does the risks associated with that investment.…

“The Fed is now hostage to Wall Street. If the stock market pulls back a few percent the Fed becomes frightened. In a way I suppose, the Fed is justified in that belief because it is responsible to a great degree for the elevation of financial asset values”. Jim Grant (Grant’s Interest Rate Observer). On Friday, Janet Yellen, the Head of the US Federal Reserve, will speak at their annual Jackson Hole Conference, (in Wyoming), and is widely expected to comment on US Interest Rate policy. With an election in November, September may be the last chance to raise rates before the traditional pre-election purdah, as the Fed tries to maintain the illusion of political neutrality. But will they take it? Opinion is divided on the subject, despite what some Fed officials say.

“All markets look liquid during the bubble (massive uptrend), but it’s the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters.” J. Schwager, Market Wizards. Anyone who is looking at Global Investing is now (post Brexit) having to confront the currency issue. To hedge or not to hedge? Let’s see if we can make any sense of the issue…The purpose of hedging currency risk is to isolate returns on the asset class from that of the currency in which they are denominated. It is vital to ensure that asset returns are not overwhelmed by adverse currency movements. The charts below show the Implied Volatility for the (U.S.) Bond and Equity markets respectively (both are annualised figures).

Wendell: [Viewing the desert crime scene] It’s a mess, ain’t it, Sheriff?Ed Tom Bell: If it ain’t, it’ll do till the mess gets here. from No Country for Old Men (2007)

Duration is an important concept in the world of Bonds. It measures the sensitivity of a bond to changes in interest rates. Thus, a bond (or a portfolio of bonds) that has a duration of 5 will be expected to move 5% in price for a change of 1% in the discount rate (i.e .the market rate of interest). A bond/portfolio with a duration of 10 would see a 10% rise/fall in price for a given 1% move in rates etc,etc. Ceteris Paribus, the longer the maturity, and the lower the coupon, the longer the duration of a bond – think of it in terms of how long it takes to get your money back; the lower the coupon payment on a bond, the longer an investor must wait before his/her investment is fully returned.

“Live everyday as if it were your last because someday you’re going to be right.” – Muhammed Ali There appears to be trouble ahead – the Brexit Vote, the US Presidential election, and the tensions arising therein, have created a dangerously entrenched set of opposing sides. It is happening across the globe, with potentially de-stabilising effects on markets. There are a number of flash-points which bear close attention.

“You can’t cheat an honest man” – 1939 Film by W. C. Fields.