How many is enough?
Evolution consists of two simultaneous but quite separate phenomena of adaptation and diversification- Ernst Mayr (Evolutionary Biologist).
Evidence Based Investing
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Are We at the Point of No Return?
‘Please, sir, I want some more.’- Oliver Twist (Charles Dickens) That we are living in a low return world is now so widely accepted as to be bordering on a cliche- but HOW low will long term returns likely be? With the caveat that no one really knows, it is possible to come up with a reasonable set of assumptions that can provide us with a range of potential outcomes. We looked at this issue around a year ago, so now might be a good idea to revisit the prospects from a slightly different angle, as there are many ways to arrive at a conclusion, some of which will be similar.
Portfolio Hedging – what is it good for?
“The fact that there’s a highway to hell and only a stairway to heaven says a lot about anticipated traffic numbers.” – Bill Murray. (re-quoted from The Price of Everything blog).
Who’s the Dummy?
“If you’ve been playing poker for half an hour and you still don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” – Warren Buffett
University Challenge
“There are times when wisdom cannot be found in the chambers of parliament or the halls of academia but at the unpretentious setting of the kitchen table.” ― E.A. Bucchianeri
Factoring it all in
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem.No more things should be presumed to exist than are absolutely necessary. (Occam’s Razor). One of the defining trends of recent years has been the rise of ETF’s /Index funds which have taken hold over the course of the period post the Financial Crisis. There have been a proliferation of “Factors”, or possibilities of Alpha generation, many of which turn out to be either useless (i.e. they never worked) or redundant (they don’t now). This study suggests that there have been 59 new Factors “discovered ” between 2010 and 2012 alone!
‘Til Debt us do part…
After only the briefest of pauses post 2007-09, debt in all its forms is on the rise again and on a global scale; it now represents a staggering 327% of World GDP (or output). From Chinese state enterprises, to US Auto loans and here in the shape of consumer borrowing, debt is back and in a larger way than ever. As the chart below demonstrates, undeterred by Brexit, Trump’s victory or worries over North Korea etc, outstanding Credit Card debt is at all time highs (again).
The Consultant will see you now.
“A consultant is someone who saves his client almost enough to pay his fee”. -Arnold Glasow (US Businessman, Humourist). 1905-98.
For Whom the Bell Tolls…
“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don’t resist them that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.” ― Lao Tzu